A recent scientific study titled "Further, steeper, greener: Implications from an electric bicycle mode choice model" examines exactly this question. The results provide exciting insights: e-bikes replace car journeys significantly more often than many previously assumed – and could therefore play a central role in sustainable mobility.
What the study is about
The study analyzes which modes of transport are replaced by e-bikes and which factors lead people to use an e-bike instead of other modes of transport. It is based on an extensive dataset from the German mobility study "Mobility in Germany."
A total of 194,524 individual trips were analyzed and evaluated using a so-called Nested Logit Model. Various modes of transport were compared, including:
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car
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public transport
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conventional bicycle
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e-bike
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other transport options
Additionally, factors such as:
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route length
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route incline
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cycling infrastructure
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age structure of users
were included in the model. The aim was to find out when people choose e-bikes and which modes of transport they replace as a result. (ScienceDirect)
Surprising result: E-bikes primarily replace car journeys
One of the most important findings of the study concerns substitution effects.
The analysis shows:
This means that e-bikes replace not only conventional bicycles but, in many cases, directly replace cars.
This effect is greater than often assumed by previous studies. While conventional bicycles often only replace short trips, e-bikes also take over longer commuter routes that would otherwise typically be driven by car.
E-bikes are closer to cars than to bicycles
Another interesting result of the study concerns the characteristics of e-bike trips.
The model shows that in terms of mode choice, e-bikes are in some aspects more similar to cars than to conventional bicycles. (ScienceDirect)
This is mainly due to two factors:
1. Distance sensitivity
For regular bicycles, the probability of use decreases sharply as the distance increases.
For e-bikes, this effect is significantly weaker.
With electric assistance, even distances of 10–20 km become realistic, which would be too long for many people with a conventional bicycle.
2. Topography (gradients)
Gradients play an important role for both types of bicycles, but their negative impact is significantly less pronounced for e-bikes.
Especially in hilly regions, e-bikes can therefore be a decisive factor for more cycling.
Infrastructure is less crucial than expected
Another finding might be surprising for urban planners.
The study shows:
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The decision for a conventional bicycle strongly depends on cycling infrastructure.
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For e-bikes, this effect is significantly weaker. (ScienceDirect)
This does not mean that infrastructure is unimportant. But e-bikes can also be attractive where cycle paths are not yet perfectly developed.
One reason for this is the higher speed and range. This makes routes usable that were previously too long or too strenuous.
Great opportunities for climate and transport
The results of the study have significant implications for the transport transition.
If e-bikes actually replace a large proportion of car journeys, several advantages arise:
1. Fewer CO₂ emissions
Every car journey replaced by an e-bike directly reduces CO₂ emissions in transport.
2. Less traffic in cities
Fewer cars mean:
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less traffic jams
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less noise
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more space in cities
3. More physical activity in everyday life
Even with motor assistance, e-biking remains a physical activity. Thus, it combines mobility with health benefits.
Who particularly benefits from e-bikes
The study also shows that certain groups particularly benefit from e-bikes.
These include, among others:
For these groups, the e-bike can be a crucial step towards switching from car use to active mobility.
Conclusion of the study
The research clearly shows: E-bikes are more than just bicycles with a motor.
They change the structure of mobility. While conventional bicycles often only replace short trips, e-bikes can also substitute longer car journeys.
Key findings:
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Around 43% of e-bike journeys replace car journeys.
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Over 63% of e-bike kilometers would otherwise have been traveled by car.
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E-bikes significantly expand the realistic radius of action for cycling.
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Thus, they have great potential for climate protection and sustainable mobility.
Given rising petrol prices, increasing traffic problems in cities, and growing environmental awareness, the importance of e-bikes is likely to continue to grow significantly in the coming years.
